Oil Posts Worst Decline in 2 1/2 Months on Bearish OPEC Signals

By Catherine Ngai

Nov 29, 2019

(Bloomberg) Oil fell the most in more than two months amid signals that OPEC and allied crude producers are averse to deepening output cuts when they convene next week.Futures dropped 5.1% in New York on Friday, closing the U.S. benchmark’s poorest weekly performance since early October. Saudi Arabia probably will indicate to the cartel next week that it’s no longer willing to compensate for excessive production by others, according to people familiar with the kingdom’s thinking.Meanwhile, Russia’s oil minister said it’d be better to postpone any new supply caps until April, the Tass news agency reported. In the U.S., futures-trading volume was suppressed on the day after the Thanksgiving holiday, increasing the potential for dramatic price moves.

“The OPEC accord with Russia could be fraying a bit,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital. “It undercuts and undermines everyone’s perception of the commitment.”

Total WTI futures contracts fall this week

OPEC and allies including Russia are expected to extend the current supply pact, rather than make deeper reductions, when they meet in Vienna late next week, a Bloomberg survey showed.

That comes as government data showed the U.S. was a net exporter of crude and refined products for a full month for the first time in at least seven decades. The milestone, which was only previously reached on a weekly basis, underscored the growing influence of American crude in foreign markets, a point that won’t be lost on OPEC.

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Despite Friday’s slump, New York-traded futures were on track for the biggest monthly advance since June amid optimism the the U.S. and China are closing in on a trade accord. As for OPEC, a special committee that analyzes market data before ministerial meetings didn’t consider steeper cuts, according to delegates who asked not to be named.

West Texas Intermediate for January delivery slipped $2.94 to settle at $55.17 a barrel p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. There was no settlement Thursday due to the U.S. holiday and all transactions will be booked Friday.

Brent for January settlement, which expires Friday, dropped $1.44 to $62.43 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $7.26 premium to WTI.

Saudi Arabia has largely turned a blind eye to cheaters within the OPEC+ alliance, making additional reductions to its own output to offset excesses by the likes of Iraq and Russia. Ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will meet in Vienna on Dec. 5 to 6 to decide on policy going forward.

Other market news:
Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi pledged to hand in his resignation to parliament a day after some of the worst violence during two months of anti-government protests. Kashagan oil output is expected to return to pre-maintenance levels in the coming week, the Kazakh energy ministry said by email. OPEC crude output fell by 30,000 barrels a day to 29.935 million in November, according to JBC Energy. The fire at a Texas chemical facility owned by TPC Group has been contained

Other market news:

Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi pledged to hand in his resignation to parliament a day after some of the worst violence during two months of anti-government protests.
Kashagan oil output is expected to return to pre-maintenance levels in the coming week, the Kazakh energy ministry said by email.
OPEC crude output fell by 30,000 barrels a day to 29.935 million in November, according to JBC Energy.
The fire at a Texas chemical facility owned by TPC Group has been contained