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Oil Hovers Near 3-Year High as U.S. Stockpiles Forecast to Drop


January 18, 2018 by Alex Longley and Ben Sharples
(Bloomberg) 

Oil held near a three-year high ahead of U.S. inventory data that’s expected to show a ninth week of crude-stockpile declines.

Futures were little changed in New York after rising 0.4 percent on Wednesday. The American Petroleum Institute estimates stocks fell by 5.12 million barrels last week, a steeper drop than the 3.15 million forecast in a Bloomberg survey before Energy Information Administration data due Thursday. OPEC’s outlook for rival supply expanded once again, the group said in its monthly report, becoming the latest agency to boost its estimates for American production.

Oil is extending its run after two consecutive annual gains as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia curb supplies. While the cuts are gradually shrinking a global surplus, OPEC said rising prices are boosting production in North America. The International Energy Agency, which releases its monthly report on Friday, may also increase its estimates for U.S. output, said Executive Director Fatih Birol.

See also: OPEC-Russia Oil Deal Faces a New Danger: Too Much Winning

“The market will want to see whether the EIA report can match the API’s crude draw and whether overall inventories are falling,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Group AG. “After last week’s drop, the crude production data will be interesting too.”

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery was at $64.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 11 cents, at 12:09 p.m. in London. Total volume traded was about 21 percent below the 100-day average.

Brent for March settlement added 5 cents to $69.43 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after gaining 0.3 percent on Wednesday. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.41 to WTI for the same month.

U.S. gasoline inventories probably rose by 3.99 million barrels last week, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. In the preceding week, total crude and product stockpiles fell to 1.2 billion barrels, the seventh drop in the last eight weeks, according to EIA data.

Oil-market news:

Estimated non-OPEC supply growth for 2018 has been bolstered by 160,000 barrels a day to 1.15 million barrels a day, mainly due to North America, OPEC said in its monthly oil market report. BP agreed to help increase crude production at northern Iraq’s Kirkuk fields as part of a government push to restore output and export capacity. Saudi Arabian Oil Co. is ready for its initial public offering in the second half, with the government yet to decide where to list the shares, Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said.



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