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OPEC Sees No Peak Oil Demand as Energy Security Beats Climate
- OPEC forecasts “robust growth” in global oil demand, with demand projected to rise to 113.3 million barrels a day in 2030 and 124.1 million barrels a day by 2050.
- The largest increments of oil demand growth will come from Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, with India being the top contributor, adding 8.1 million barrels a day over the outlook period.
- OPEC says $17.7 trillion in investments from 2026 to 2050 are needed to meet long-term oil demand, with the group’s rivals expected to meet about half of the projected increase in demand in the coming years.
OPEC continues to see no peak in global oil demand, forecasting “robust growth” as governments in the US, Europe and elsewhere prioritize energy security and affordability alongside climate goals.
“The increased focus on energy security and energy affordability has shifted the energy policy landscape across the globe,” OPEC said. “In many cases, these shifts reflect the reversal, delay or cancellation of previously ambitious targets and commitments aimed at reducing oil demand.”
Oil demand is projected to rise to 113.3 million barrels a day in 2030 and 124.1 million barrels a day by 2050, up from 105.1 million barrels in 2025, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its annual World Oil Outlook.
The group’s bullish view on oil demand stands in contrast to other forecaster such as the International Energy Agency. The Paris-based organization just predicted that impact from the war waged by the US and Israel on Iran will be much deeper than previously anticipated, with world oil consumption expected to slump by 1.1 million barrels a day this year.
After the end of that conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz this week, OPEC members such as Kuwait are putting plans into action to quickly return their production to prewar levels.
The largest increments of oil demand growth in the coming decades will come from Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, according to the report. India is the top contributor, adding 8.1 million barrels a day over the outlook period. From a sectoral perspective, the biggest growth is expected in road transportation, petrochemicals and aviation.
OPEC does see a peak for its competitors. Production of US tight crude, commonly known as shale oil, reached its high point in 2025 at just over 9 million barrels a day, OPEC said. The group said its rivals will meet about half of the projected increase in demand in the coming years.
“The scale of humanity’s energy needs requires sustained investment today across all energies and technologies,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais. “For oil alone, investments of $17.7 trillion from 2026 to 2050 — or over $700 billion per annum – are needed to meet demand in the long term.”
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