CDN NEWS | 
US NEWS 
Ukrainian long-range drones at an undisclosed location in February. Photographer: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo
The impact from Ukrainian drone strikes will suppress Russia’s refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026, the International Energy Agency says in its latest monthly oil-market report.
Kyiv has been intensifying attacks on its foe’s energy infrastructure — including oil refineries, pipelines and sea terminals — in a move to cut the Kremlin’s energy revenue and reduce its ability to supply fuel to the front lines.
Since the start of August, Ukraine has launched at least 28 strikes on key Russian refineries — with the range of the attacks increasing — causing gasoline shortages in several regions, including occupied Crimea. This has forced the Kremlin to impose fuel-export restrictions until the end of the year.
“Previously, we had assumed a normalization of refining activity as we approached year-end but now embed a more cautious outlook,” the Paris-based agency said in a report on Tuesday. The IEA currently sees Russian processing rates at just under 5 million barrels a day through June 2026, and a recovery toward 5.4 million barrels a day later, with the outlook to be revised as more information becomes available.
“The increasingly widespread and significant Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian oil refineries and infrastructure” has so far cut the nation’s crude processing by an estimated 500,000 barrels a day, the agency said.
The government in Moscow has classified most energy data, including refinery runs and car-fuel production, which makes it difficult to make a precise assessment of the drone-related damage. Last week, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the nation’s refiners have increased their runs, balancing domestic fuel demand and supply.
Lower Revenue
With the drone strikes weighing on refinery runs, Russia raised its crude exports in September to 5.1 million barrels a day, the highest since May 2023, according to the IEA. Still, the nation’s oil-export revenues declined to a three-month low of $13.4 billion, the agency estimated.
The decline came as Russia’s crude-supply revenues, which rose $200 million month-on-month, were more than offset by a $440 million drop for oil-product exports, the report said. According to the IEA calculations, Russian fuel supplies to other countries in September reached 2.4 million barrels a day, the lowest in a decade, excluding April 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The drop in oil-export revenue is set to strain Russia’s state coffers as Moscow continues to spend heavily to finance the fourth year of the war in Ukraine. The government already expects oil and gas flows into the budget this year to be the lowest since the pandemic.
Share This:
