Oil Price Outlook Steady as Rising Supply Offset by Concerns Over Russian Output

Prices are being shaped by “the tug of war mostly related to supply issues, with OPEC+ increases and resumption from northern Iraq being offset by the threat of disrupted supply from Russia,” Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said.

Earlier this month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia – together known as OPEC+ – agreed to further raise oil production from October by 137,000 barrels per day, bringing total production increases this year to over 2.5 million barrels per day.

Most analysts said this was the primary driver of a looming supply surplus, along with increasing output from non-OPEC+ producers. This, along with an anticipation of a slowdown in demand due to weak economic growth triggered by trade tariffs, is expected to deepen the surplus.

However, analysts remain wary that Russian exports could be curbed further by sanctions, infrastructure attacks, or Moscow’s own policy moves, keeping a floor under prices.

Russia will introduce a partial ban on diesel exports until the end of the year and extend an existing ban on gasoline exports, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was quoted as saying last week, following a spate of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries.

In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency said world oil supply would rise more rapidly this year and a surplus could expand in 2026 as OPEC+ members increase output and supply from outside the producer group grows, in contrast to OPEC’s own updated outlook.