Oil Softens on US Tariff Uncertainty and OPEC+ Output Expectations

Summary

Pause on US tariffs set to end on July 9
OPEC+ expected to raise output by 411,000 bpd
US crude inventories rise unexpectedly

(Reuters) – Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday as the possibility of U.S. tariffs being reinstated raised demand concerns ahead of an expected supply boost by major producers.

Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $68.90 a barrel by 1217 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.30.

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Both contracts had hit one-week highs on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, raising concerns the lingering dispute over its nuclear programme could again devolve into armed conflict.

A preliminary trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam also boosted prices.

Tariff uncertainty looms large, however. The 90-day pause on the implementation of higher U.S. tariffs ends on July 9, with several large trading partners yet to wrap up trade deals, including the European Union and Japan.

The OPEC+ group of oil producers, meanwhile, is expected to agree to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) at its policy meeting this weekend.

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Adding to negative sentiment, a private-sector survey showed that service activity in China – the world’s biggest oil importer – expanded at its slowest pace in nine months in June as demand weakened and new export orders declined.

A surprise build in U.S. crude inventories also highlighted demand concerns in the world’s biggest crude consumer.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels.

The market will be watching for the U.S. monthly employment report on Thursday, which is likely to shape expectations over the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year, analysts said.

Lower interest rates could spur economic activity that would boost oil demand.

Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar Additional reporting by Siyi Liu in Singapore Editing by David Goodman