Oil Set for Steepest Weekly Decline in Two Years as Risk Subsides

Summary

Brent, WTI down 12% this week, most since March 2023
No major supply disruption from Mideast crisis, analysts say
Lower US inventories lend some price support

(Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Friday but were set for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023, as the absence of significant supply disruption from the Iran-Israel conflict saw any risk premium evaporate.

Brent crude futures were up 51 cents, or 0.75%, to $68.24 a barrel at 1202 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 51 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to $65.75.

Get the Latest US Focused Energy News Delivered to You! It's FREE: Quick Sign-Up Here

During the 12-day war that started after Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13, Brent prices rose briefly to above $80 a barrel before slumping to $67 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire.

That put both contracts on course for a weekly fall of about 12%.

“The market has almost entirely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premiums from almost a week ago as we return to a fundamentals-driven market,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

He said the market was also keeping an eye on the July 6 meeting of oil producers group OPEC+, where another output hike of 411,000 barrels per day is expected, while adding that summer demand indicators were key as well.

MicroWatt Controls: Instrumentation & Safety System Experts

Prices were also being supported by multiple oil inventory reports that showed strong draws in middle distillates, said Tamas Varga, a PVM Oil Associates analyst.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed crude oil and fuel inventories a week earlier, with refining activity and demand rising.

Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that independently held gasoil stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub fell to their lowest in over a year, while Singapore’s middle distillates inventories declined as net exports climbed week on week.

Additionally, China’s Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the conflict and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said.

China is the world’s top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude. It bought more than 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from June 1-20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm’s data.

Reporting by Siyi Liu in Singapore and Nicole Jao in New York. Editing by Elaine Hardcastle, David Evans and Mark Potter