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Goldman Sachs said on Sunday it is retaining a cautious outlook on oil prices, as pressure from likely elevated Iranian supply and higher OECD commercial inventories will offset support from stronger global GDP growth.
“We are maintaining our Brent/WTI oil price forecasts of $60/56 ($4 below the forwards) for the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 ($8 below the forwards) in 2026,” the bank said.
Goldman Sachs has nudged up its Iran crude supply expectations for the second half of 2025 through 2026 to 3.6 million barrels per day, following widespread media reports of progress on a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.
President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States is getting very close to getting a nuclear deal with Iran.
If a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal is reached and sustainably implemented, it is plausible that Iran’s crude supply could gradually increase by several hundred thousand barrels per day, Goldman Sachs said.
“Incorporating lower tariffs and higher GDP, we are raising our global oil demand Q4-Q4 growth forecasts by 0.3mb/d and 0.1mb/d for 2025 and 2026 to 0.6mb/d and 0.4mb/d, respectively,” the bank said.
In a more extreme and less likely scenario with both a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC cuts, which would discipline non-OPEC supply, Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent would fall to $40 in late 2026.
Brent crude futures were trading at $65.24 per barrel by 0326 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $62.38 per barrel.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru)
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COMMENTARY: Israel-Iran War Already Takes Toll on Oil and Gas Sector – Bousso