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Summary
- Brent projected to average $68.98 per barrel in 2025
- WTI to average at $65.08 per barrel in 2025
- For table of crude price forecasts, click
(Reuters) – A demand outlook clouded by trade disputes between the U.S. and China coupled with OPEC+’s decision to unwind supplies will weigh on oil prices this year, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
A survey of 40 economists and analysts in April projected Brent crude to average $68.98 a barrel in 2025, down from March’s estimate of $72.94. U.S. crude is expected to average $65.08 per barrel, lower than last month’s $69.16 outlook.
“Crude oil will be caught between worries about an economic slowdown and rising OPEC+ production on one hand and support from the prospect for sanctions and low prices hurting production growth among high-cost producers,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
A slew of tit-for-tat tariffs announced by the U.S. and China over the last few months has dampened the outlook for global economic growth and fuel demand. Earlier this month, oil prices slid to a four-year low on concerns around tariffs.
Analysts polled by Reuters now expect crude oil demand growth of an average of 860,000 barrels per day – compared to the International Energy Agency, which this month trimmed its demand growth forecast to 730,000 barrels per day, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which also cut its demand growth forecast this month, now expects growth of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ decision to accelerate supply additions will also be a drag on oil prices if it proceeds as planned, analysts said. Several members of the group, set to meet on May 5, will suggest the group accelerates oil output hikes in June for a second consecutive month, sources told Reuters.
Some analysts, though, say further OPEC+ hikes might not happen.
“While the global medium-sour crude market remains tight, an OPEC+ production cut unwinding as planned – including revised compensation plans – appears unlikely in 2025, given mounting downside risks to demand,” said Florian Grunberger, senior analyst at Kpler.
Lower oil prices should slow supply growth, with a time lag, with U.S. shale being the first to react, HSBC said in an April 15 note.
“With half-cycle breakevens around the $60 per barrel WTI level on average, it seems inevitable that activity will slow if oil prices stay at current levels of $65 per barrel Brent/low $60s per barrel WTI…”
Reporting by Anjana Anil and Kavya Balaraman in Bengaluru; Editing by Ros Russell
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