In 2024, the European Union’s shift back towards fossil fuels began to solidify in earnest.

Over the past few years, Giorgia Meloni has become the Prime Minister of Italy, Geert Wilders’ party is the senior partner in the governing coalition of the Netherlands, and Friedrich Merz is poised to ascend to the leadership of Germany’s government. All three figures are on the political right and are far more nuanced or sceptical of renewable energy, depending on whom you speak to.

The EU’s once ironclad commitment to rapidly replacing fossil fuels with renewables has cracked and given way to a more cautious and inclusive strategy to keep homes heated and industry powered. There is also growing resistance to the sacrifices being asked of ordinary EU citizens to meet the demands of aggressive green policies, which helped fuel their rise—no pun intended.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy reiterated her government’s ambition for Italy to become a hub of natural gas in Europe. Meloni’s government has signed a important deal with Libya and reaffirmed Italy’s partnership with Algeria across the Mediterranean to grow imports of natural gas to Italy.

Meloni herself has labelled EU climate policies as “disastrous” and has pledged to revise them, while her government has prioritized energy security and economic pragmatism. Her push to boost Mediterranean gas development is in large part a reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which led to severe restrictions on imports of Russian gas.

While many critics charge Meloni’s approach to fossil fuels as short-sighted, her approach resonates with many Italians and other Europeans who will no longer tolerate economic disruption due to energy shortages.

In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) has been the senior partner in the governing coalition since October 2023 and is far more hawkishly contrarian when it comes to EU climate policies. Wilders has dismissed proposed new investments in offshore wind turbines, solar farms, and other measures as “pointless climate hobbies.”

The PVV’s manifesto proposes abolishing Dutch climate laws, removing the country from the Paris Agreement, and growing fossil fuel extraction in the North Sea. Wilders is likely to face resistance from his more moderate coalition partners, but his electoral success is another indicator that green policies are no longer deal-breakers for European voters.

To the east, in Germany, Friedrich Merz and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are heavily favoured to return to power in the 2025 election after just four years out of government.

Merz opposes the EU’s mandated ban on combustion engines by 2035 and is open to reviving nuclear energy, which was controversially phased out under the current Social Democratic Party-led government after pressure from the Green Party, a junior coalition partner. As a junior partner in the current governing coalition, the Greens are unlikely to join a CDU-led government if the party secures a plurality in the upcoming election, as they have never formed a coalition with the CDU before.

Under Merz, the CDU advocates for “technological openness,” which opens the door to a host of alternatives to heavy-handed energy phaseouts. Like Meloni in Italy, Merz remains committed to EU climate goals, but the CDU’s pro-business outlook could very well slow the pace of renewable energy adoption in favour of economic and industrial goals.

Germany has a special role in the EU as the largest economy and has acted as its unofficial leader for decades. The decisions made by a likely Merz-led CDU government will have a huge impact across the bloc, even if his approach may be tempered by his coalition partners.

The approach of Merz, Meloni, and Wilders reflects a broad reorientation in Europe due to rising energy costs, stagnating economies, geopolitical uncertainty, and public backlash.

This shift is not indicative of climate denial or an abandonment of the EU’s commitment to climate neutrality by 2050, but the pathway is far murkier. Global energy leaders should take note and ponder what role they can play with the EU’s more inclusive approach to energy security.