There’s no quick fix for incoming President Donald Trump’s demand that European nations buy more American oil and gas.

He insisted that the European Union make “large-scale purchases” of US hydrocarbons to “make up their tremendous deficit with the United States” or face “TARIFFS all the way!!!”

You can see his logic.

The US goods and services trade deficit with the EU totaled $131.3 billion in 2022, according to the office of the US Trade Representative. And hydrocarbons have been its big export success story of recent years.

The oil and gas sector certainly played its part in getting Trump back into the White House, so it’s perhaps no surprise that he’s championing their cause. It’s notable, though, that he didn’t urge European countries to buy more Teslas.

A single Aframax tanker of crude is worth about the same as 1,000 of Elon Musk’s Model Ys. Oil and gas also deliver much more political clout than electric cars — just look at how Russia has leveraged its energy exports in relationships with European countries.

There’s also a longevity angle. Liquefied natural gas is typically sold under multiyear, even multidecade contracts, so you’d be tying buyers in for the long term.

So it’s not a stupid idea, even if it comes bound up with threats.

The countries of the EU have already boosted their imports of US oil and gas dramatically. Purchases in the first nine months of 2024 were more than five times as high as during the initial nine months of Trump’s first presidency.

Based on current oil prices, the region would have to purchase an additional 5.3 million barrels a day of American crude to fill the trade deficit. That’s impossibly large, almost the combined oil use of Germany, France, Spain and Italy — the bloc’s four biggest consumers.

On a more immediate, practical level, the US can only sell more oil and gas to Europe by diverting it from elsewhere, reducing one trade deficit by swelling another.

The Energy Information Administration sees oil production increasing by just 100,000 barrels a day by the end of next year from its current level, while for natural gas it’s expected to rise by the equivalent of 120,000 barrels a day.

Maybe Trump is banking on his ability to spur output to new heights, even though oil producers themselves have signaled they’re not planning for a flood of supply. Higher LNG exports would raise prices for domestic consumers, a recent study by the Biden administration showed.

If he does unleash a wave of projects, maybe there’ll be a market for gas in a Europe that has grown increasingly worried about its dependence on foreign energy after its recent experience with Russia.

But the US under Trump isn’t exactly sounding like a friendly nation to many European ears.

—Julian Lee, Bloomberg News