China’s Surging LNG Imports From US Threatened by Next Trade War

The US has boosted sales of liquefied natural gas to China this year, although the surge may not last if the incoming Trump administration collides with Beijing over trade.

China imported 63% more of the super-chilled fuel from the US in the first 10 months of the year compared to the same period in 2023, according to Chinese customs data released on Wednesday. That lifted the US to fifth in the roster of Beijing’s suppliers, behind Australia, Qatar, Russia and Malaysia.

Although the 3.9 million tons shipped so far this year is only about 6% of China’s total, Chinese buyers have contracted for 14 million tons of US LNG starting from 2026, according to BloombergNEF.

If Washington presses ahead with a threatened 60% tariff on Chinese goods, Beijing’s retaliation could include duties on American gas. That’s what happened during the last trade war when Trump was in office, which brought US gas exports to China to a juddering halt for much of 2019.

Of course, China could also use its gas-buying heft as a trade negotiating chip, promising to buy more of the fuel from the US in an attempt to narrow its trade surplus.