US Natgas Prices Hold Near 3-Week Low on Mild Weather Forecasts

Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange remained unchanged at $2.490 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:11 a.m. EDT (1211 GMT). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since Sept. 20.

One factor weighing on prices in recent weeks has been a reduction in the amount of gas power generators burned after Hurricanes Milton and Helene knocked out electric service to millions of homes and businesses.

There were still about 193,000 customers without power in Florida from Milton, which hit the state on Oct. 9, and 12,000 out in North Carolina from Helene, which hit Florida on Sept. 26 before moving inland.

In total, Milton caused around 3.4 million customers to lose power, while Helene caused roughly 6 million outages.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center, meanwhile, projected there was a 60% chance that a disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean would strengthen into a tropical cyclone over the next week as it moves toward Puerto Rico and the Bahamas.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 101.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Reductions so far this year came after many producers reduced drilling activities after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 1.6 bcfd to a preliminary four-month low of 100.4 bcfd on Tuesday. Analysts, however, have said that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will switch from colder than normal through Oct. 17 to mostly warmer than normal from Oct. 18-30.

With warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 97.3 bcfd this week to 96.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Monday.

The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, feedgas to the LNG plants was on track to hit a seven-month high of 13.9 bcfd on Tuesday.

The U.S. became the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Gas prices were trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

Oct 11 Oct 4 Oct 11 average

Forecast Actual Oct 11 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +68 +82 +93 +89 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,697 3,629 3,598 3,542 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 4.4% 5.1%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year

Last Year Average Average

2023 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.47 2.49 3.15 2.66 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 12.49 12.92 14.55 13.04 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.11 13.08 16.30 14.39 14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 133 133 106 137 159 U.S. GFS CDDs 33 35 45 44 34 U.S. GFS TDDs 166 168 151 181 193

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year

Week Last Year (2019-2023)

Average For

Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.3 101.6 101.8 103.7 96.8 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.0 7.9 7.2 N/A 7.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 109.3 109.6 108.9 N/A 103.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.9 1.8 1.8 N/A 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.5 6.5 6.5 N/A 5.9 U.S. LNG Exports 12.4 13.5 13.7 14.3 10.0 U.S. Commercial 5.3 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.9 U.S. Residential 4.8 7.9 7.7 7.8 7.3 U.S. Power Plant 35.5 30.9 30.0 21.4 30.9 U.S. Industrial 22.1 22.7 22.4 22.6 22.3 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 74.8 75.5 74.0 65.7 74.5 Total U.S. Demand 95.7 97.3 96.0 N/A 92.7

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The 2025 Current 2025 Prior 2024 2023 2022 Dalles Dam Day % of Day % of % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal

Normal Normal Actual Actual Actual

Forecast Forecast Apr-Sep 93 94 74 83 107 Jan-Jul 89 89 76 77 102 Oct-Sep 89 89 77 76 103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel

Week ended Week ended 2023 2022 2021

Oct 18 Oct 11 Wind 12 9 10 11 10 Solar 5 6 4 3 3 Hydro 5 5 6 6 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 41 44 41 38 37 Coal 16 16 17 21 23 Nuclear 19 18 19 19 20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.31 Transco Z6 New York 1.56 PG&E Citygate 3.92 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.22 Chicago Citygate 2.14 Algonquin Citygate 1.56 SoCal Citygate 2.34 Waha Hub 0.28 AECO 1.13

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 28.50 PJM West 30.50 Ercot North 35.95 Mid C 48.00 Palo Verde 25.50 SP-15 22.25

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)