Vladimir Putin’s ambition to triple exports by 2030 looks like a stretch, and that bodes well for Washington.
Vladimir Putin’s strategy to expand liquefied natural gas exports hinges on finding buyers willing to circumvent US sanctions. So far, that’s proven a challenge.
Key to the Russian president’s plans is the vast Arctic LNG 2 plant, which started using a shadow fleet to export the fuel in August.
Of the six tankers that have loaded gas from the terminal, none has yet discharged cargoes at a foreign port. Four were delivered to storage facilities off the Russian coast.
A reluctance to get caught in Washington’s crosshairs is the main reason. The US has been ramping up sanctions against the facility — and shipping lines that may carry the fuel — in an effort to cut off Moscow’s funds for its war in Ukraine.
Many potential buyers are dependent on LNG supplies from America, the No. 1 exporter, making them wary of antagonizing the White House.

India, a keen purchaser of Russian oil, publicly stated it won’t take the gas. And the Arctic LNG 2 partners — which include French, Chinese and Japanese companies — have distanced themselves from the project, forgoing their share of supply. Major Chinese importers are also steering clear.
To be sure, two vessels carrying the gas are currently enroute to Asia, indicating there may be buyers. One is off the west coast of Hokkaido, Japan, and heading toward China. But it’s possible the ship could change course or tread water if a customer isn’t lined up.
Russia has sought to find new markets for its gas after losing most European customers following the invasion of Ukraine. Putin wants to triple LNG exports by 2030, but if the problems with Arctic LNG 2 are anything to go by, that looks tough to achieve.
Should shipments miss targets, Russia’s loss may well be America’s gain, allowing Washington to meet geopolitical objectives while domestic LNG exporters benefit — essentially killing two birds with one stone.
–Stephen Stapczynski, Bloomberg News
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