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Even if OPEC+ continues to constrain production throughout 2025, a surplus will still emerge

Bloomberg News

OPEC+ has staved off an oil surplus this year by deciding to restrain production a little longer. But the temporary fix won’t hold back the supply glut awaiting global markets in 2025.

The group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia chose on Thursday to delay plans to restore output by two months, after faltering economic growth in China and swelling American supply pushed crude prices to a 14-month low.

By changing its road map for reviving supply, the group has probably averted the excess that had been otherwise expected by leading industry figures like Trafigura Group and the International Energy Agency. Crude’s rout briefly stabilized.

Yet even if OPEC+ continues to constrain production throughout 2025, a surplus will still emerge amid subdued demand growth and burgeoning output from the U.S., Guyana, Brazil and Canada, according to the IEA. Prices are set to slump toward US$60 a barrel, Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. predict.

The market’s decline offers some relief to consumers and central banks after years of rampant inflation, and even a potential tailwind for Vice President Kamala Harris’s election campaign. But it leaves prices too low for the Saudis and others in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cover government spending.

“It doesn’t look good at all for OPEC+ in 2025,” said Christof Ruehl, senior analyst at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “Everybody would agree that non-OPEC supply is strong enough to create a surplus in the market. And holding back supply now to keep prices up encourages that, of course.”

The math for crude markets in 2025 is stark. Global oil consumption will expand by less than 1 million barrels a day next year — or roughly one per cent — as the post-pandemic rebound loses steam and the transition to electric vehicles gathers force, the IEA projects. The Paris-based agency advises most major economies.

China, the engine of oil demand for the past two decades, is showing a diminished appetite for the commodity. Imports have dwindled to the weakest pace in almost two years as economic growth cools and top industry officials envisage a shift away from fossil fuels.Muted global consumption growth will be outmatched more than 50 per cent by the tide of new production from outside the 23-nation OPEC+ alliance, with 40 per cent coming from the U.S., according to the IEA. While the nation’s shale boom has eased, it continues to provide substantial volumes of new supply.As a result, global oil inventories stand to accumulate next year, beginning with a hefty build-up of 1.3 million barrels a day during the first quarter, according to the IEA. In this context, OPEC+ has only “limited scope” to add barrels, BP Plc chief economist Spencer Dale warned last month.

“OPEC’s decision is not a decisive one,” said Henning Gloystein, an analyst at Eurasia Group. It “may defend Brent prices above US$70 and help prevent oversupply, but the demand side is weakening, especially in China. We’ll see whether OPEC can still go ahead with even the delayed tapering.”Crude’s losses deepened on Friday after state-run Saudi Aramco cut pricing of its flagship crude grade for its main market in Asia next month, another signal of demand concern. Brent tumbled as much as 1.8 per cent to US$71.35, the lowest since May 2023.In June, when the market outlook appeared brighter, the cartel outlined plans to gradually revive 2.2 million barrels a day of output, which had been halted during a series of cutbacks made since late 2022. The recovery was supposed to begin with a hike of 180,000 barrels a day in October.Yet the coalition vacillated over the plan as soon as it was announced. Led by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, members repeatedly stressed they could “pause or “reverse” the increases if necessary. Even a political crisis in fellow member Libya — which shuttered more than 50 per cent of output — couldn’t reassure the group enough to open the taps a little.

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If OPEC+ proceeds with its revised plan — which will still bring back 2.2 million barrels of production, but do so two months later than previously planned — it will amplify the impending surplus in 2025.A further delay could avoid this, but it’s unclear how much longer the group can sustain the discipline to keep barrels off the market.

The United Arab Emirates — one of the organization’s biggest producers — has been keen to deploy recent investments in new capacity, which Abu Dhabi says has reached a substantial 4.85 million barrels a day. That’s roughly 5 per cent of world supplies.

Other members such as Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan have struggled to deliver the cutbacks they were supposed to make at the start of the year. Baghdad has long chafed at OPEC+ quotas while it tries to rebuild an economy shattered by decades of conflict and sanctions, while Moscow seeks revenue to fund President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine.

Despite the OPEC+ decision to pause, JPMorgan and Bank of America Corp. lowered forecasts for crude prices. For group leader Saudi Arabia, the deteriorating outlook threatens financial pain.

Riyadh needs prices close to US$100 a barrel to fund the economic transformation plans of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which span futuristic cities and premium sports players, data from the International Monetary Fund indicate. The kingdom has been forced to scale back spending on flagship projects after a four-quarter economic slump.

If the OPEC+ strategy continues to struggle, the group could consider a more extreme alternative, Bank of America and BNP Paribas warn: ramping up production to claw back market share and squeeze out rivals like U.S. shale. Neither consider this the most probable scenario, but its likelihood may be rising.

“One wonders when the patience of intentionally giving up market share with no return in sight could run out,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokers PVM Oil Associates Ltd.

With assistance from Salma El Wardany, Fiona MacDonald and Nayla Razzouk

Bloomberg.com