U.S. Natgas Prices Jump 4% on Forecast for Record Heat

By Scott Disavino

July 30 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to a one-week high on Tuesday on forecasts for record-breaking heat later this week that could boost the amount of gas power generators burn to an all-time high.

That price increase came despite a bearish rise in output and forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.0 cents, or 4.4%, from where the contract traded on Monday to settle at $2.126 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Tuesday, their highest since July 23.

That was also up about 11.5% from where lower-priced August contract closed on Monday when it was still the front-month. The August contract settled at $1.907 per mmBtu, the front-month’s lowest close since April 26.

Another bullish factor was an increase in the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG in Texas was on track to reach a preliminary 14-month high on Tuesday after the plant slowly returned to full service following a nine-day outage for Hurricane Beryl in early July.

Analysts said the combination of higher gas use by power generators and rising LNG exports could cause utilities to take the unusual step of pulling gas out of storage during the first week of August. That would be the first weekly storage withdrawal in August since 2006.

There was currently about 17% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.

Storage builds have been mostly smaller than usual in recent weeks, because several producers cut output earlier this year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.

Higher prices in April and May, however, prompted some drillers, including EQT (EQT.N) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK.O), to slowly boost output.

But with prices down about 23% so far in July, some analysts think producers may keep their drilling activities reduced for longer.

“Given continued weak market dynamics, the company is executing its previously disclosed plan to defer completions … building short-cycle, capital-efficient productive capacity, which can be activated when supply and demand imbalances correct,” Chesapeake said in its second-quarter earnings release on Monday.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to an average of 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.4 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the Lower 48 states will average 83.5 degrees Fahrenheit (28.6 Celsius) on Aug. 1 and 83.9 F on Aug. 2, according to LSEG data.

That would top the daily record high average temperature of 83.0 F set on July 20, 2022, when power demand peaked at an all-time high of 742,600 megawatts, LSEG and federal energy data showed.

To keep air conditioners humming during that record heat, LSEG forecast power generators would burn about 55.0 bcfd of gas on Aug. 2, which would top the all-time high of 54.1 bcfd reached on July 9 when generators had to burn more gas due to a lack of wind power.

But the amount of wind power was on track to rise from 4% last week to around 11% this week.

With more heat coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 105.2 bcfd this week to 111.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Monday.