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Wind Woes Persist for Texas Power System in 2024


These translations are done via Google Translate

(Reuters) – Power generated by Texas wind farms dropped by 22% in January 2024 from the same month in 2023 as low wind speeds continue to stifle output across the main power system in Texas, the largest power market in the United States.

Wind generation in January was 356,000 megawatts (MW), compared to 455,000 MW in January 2023, data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) compiled by LSEG shows.

As wind power is the second largest source of electricity behind natural gas in Texas, the drop in wind output so far this year has forced utilities to sharply increase generation from fossil fuels to balance system needs.

ERCOT power generators boosted fossil fuel output in January 2024 to offset a drop in wind generation
ERCOT power generators boosted fossil fuel output in January 2024 to offset a drop in wind generation

Combined output from natural gas and coal was close to 50% greater in January 2024 than in January 2023, underscoring the enduring importance of fossil fuels within the ERCOT system despite the ongoing build-out of renewable generation capacity.

INTERMITTENT VOLATILITY

Month-on-month swings in wind generation are normal, so utilities across the United States are becoming increasingly adept at deploying other forms of dispatchable power onto system grids whenever wind or solar power output slumps.

But the drop in Texas wind output in January from a year ago follows a disappointing wind generation total for 2023 as a whole, and suggests that even with steep increases in wind generation capacity the ERCOT system may remain unable to rely on wind to supply a steady share of Texas’ power needs.

Cumulative wind power output in 2023 was 4,500,000 MW, compared to 4,400,000 MW in 2022, LSEG data shows.

That 2.4% climb in annual wind output is less than the roughly 3% rise in wind generation capacity within the system in 2023, according to ERCOT.

Unusually low wind speeds were the main cause of the stunted growth, with output in April, May and June all falling sharply from the prior year totals.

Wind generation in ERCOT power system (Seasonally)
Wind generation in ERCOT power system (Seasonally)

As those months were just as demand for air conditioners picked up across the state due to rising temperatures, utilities were forced to lift output from fossil fuels to meet system demand levels, raising emissions in the process.

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The dip in wind generation totals this January also came during a period when overall system demand was high – this time for heating – and may further undermine confidence that utilities will be able to replace fossil fuels with renewable power sources any time soon.

SOLAR GROWTH

While wind output levels have been mixed, power generators have been able to deploy growing volumes of solar power in recent years, and in 2023 total solar output in ERCOT was nearly 50% greater than was generated in 2022.

However, solar power remains a relatively small share of the overall ERCOT generation pie, with solar sites accounting for only 7% of total generation last year compared to wind power’s 22.3% share and the roughly 60% share from fossil fuels.

Further increases in solar capacity are expected in ERCOT over the coming years, with installed capacity set to climb from around 22,500 MW currently to around 39,500 MW by mid-2025, ERCOT data shows.

Wind capacity growth is also expected, from around 39,000 MW currently to just over 40,000 MW by mid-2025.

However, natural gas looks set to remain the main pillar of the ERCOT generation system for the foreseeable future, with total gas capacity set to climb from around 68,000 MW to 69,000 MW by mid 2025.

The key hope for climate trackers is that battery storage capacity can outgrow all other forms of generation and allow utilities to store clean power during low demand periods and discharge that power whenever system demand needs climb.

The outlook for battery storage capacity is bright, with installed battery capacity estimated to roughly triple from around 5,400 MW currently to more than 15,000 MW by mid-2025, ERCOT data shows.

For power producers, that increase in system storage could help offset any continued shortfalls in wind output and allow overall power generation trends to get cleaner over time, even during periods when the wind stops blowing.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.



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