Texas Sets New Electricity Record, Faces More Tests From Freeze

Texas faces another power grid test Tuesday after surviving record winter demand as freezing weather strains electricity systems across North America.

While the state’s grid held up Monday, its operator issued a conservation plea for 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. Tuesday morning. It’ll be next in a series of challenges for a system that suffered deadly failures three years earlier during a similar winter storm.

Temperatures in the second-most populous state will stay below freezing for the third consecutive day. Dallas may see a low of 13F (-11C), 25 below normal, at 7 a.m. Tuesday and it will feel even colder with the wind chill. That’s the riskiest hour on the state grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, when usage is expected to soar to another winter record of more than 84 gigawatts and nearly match supply, according to the most recent estimates.

Electricity prices for that riskiest hour jumped to about $1,995 a megawatt-hour in the day-ahead market, about 75% higher than the same hour Monday morning.

The unprecedented amount of power Texans used Monday morning was still below what the grid had forecast, allowing it to escape without widespread shortfalls. Demand was expected to rise to another record Monday evening, but wind generation had picked up, adding a buffer of supply.

Forecasting power usage can be tricky. Monday was a holiday and demand is often weaker than on workdays. On Tuesday, household consumption will overlap with businesses opening up.

Texas is typically known for its searing heat, and the all-time record for electricity usage was set in the summer at 85.5 gigawatts. A gigawatt is typically enough to power 200,000 Texan homes.

A key test will be whether another round of plunging temperatures will force more generators to shut, like early Monday morning. More than 16 gigawatts of capacity had been forced offline midday, a five-day high.

Winter storm warnings, wind chill alerts and weather advisories cover most of the continental US, according to the National Weather Service. Millions of Americans are facing dangerous cold with sub-zero temperatures and even worse wind chills through tomorrow before another Arctic blast due later this week.

“We’re solidly into the winter patterns across the central and eastern US as the Arctic airmass settles overhead,” said Zack Taylor, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center.

The weather also gripped swaths of Canada, with Alberta’s power grid facing strains amid extreme cold and power plant outages. The western province’s grid operator has been issuing alerts and urging consumers to conserve energy.

The frigid temperatures that have already sparked outages and grounded flights in key central US cities is forecast to drift eastward, bringing snow with it to New York City, Washington, Philadelphia and Boston.

In New York City, electricity prices for Tuesday in the day ahead market rose as high as $310.85 a megawatt-hour during the evening peak demand period, up 13% from Monday’s high, data from the state grid operator show.

About 3,108 flights across the US were canceled as of 8:38 p.m. New York time, with Houston, Dallas, Denver and Chicago being hardest hit, according to FlightAware. The deep freeze has left more than 107,000 homes and businesses without power in five states, with Oregon and Texas experiencing the most, according to PowerOutage.us, which tracks utility outages.

Aside from stressing energy supplies, voters going to the polls in the Iowa Caucuses, the first contest of the 2024 presidential campaign, will find temperatures stuck below 0F across the state.

Meanwhile, extreme cold caused North Dakota’s daily oil production to plunge 425,000 barrels while daily output of natural gas — the nation’s No. 1 power-plant fuel — fell as much as 1.1 billion cubic feet, according to the state’s pipeline authority. That’s down about a third for both fuels from October levels.