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(Reuters) – The United States power sector emitted a record 96.66 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from natural gas-fired generation in July, and may top 100 million tonnes of CO2 this month as utilities deploy record volumes of gas to generate electricity.
Heatwaves have boosted demand for power-hungry air conditioners just as low rainfall and wind speeds have cut supply of hydro and wind power. This has forced utilities to raise the proportion of gas in electricity generation mixes to multi-year highs this month.
Through July, the U.S. power sector emitted 495 million tonnes of CO2 from gas-fired generation, a 7.2% increase over the same period in 2022 and 26% more than produced by all of Asia’s gas-fired power producers, data from think tank Ember shows.
U.S. gas power emissions are also 51% greater than those of Europe, where shortages of natural gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year has forced power producers to scale back output.
With U.S. temperatures expected to remain above long-term averages across much of the country over the coming weeks, the current high levels of gas use look set to persist through September at least, resulting in further climbs in emissions before air conditioning demand drops off in the fall.
SEASONAL PEAKS
U.S. power use and emissions historically peak during the summer months due to high use of air conditioners, especially in July and August.
This power use and emissions profile contrasts with those of Europe and Asia, where power demand and power pollution tends to peak during the winter months due to relatively lower inventory of air conditioning units in those regions.
However, rapid growth in air conditioner use is expected in all regions as temperatures continue to climb during summer months due to climate change, according to the International Energy Agency.
In the European Union, the stock of air conditioners is expected to climb by 28% by 2030 from current levels, and grow by more than 200% in India over the same period, IEA data shows.
Additional rapid growth in air conditioner use is expected in Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and elsewhere over the coming decades.
This will likely push mid-year emissions to new highs in those regions, and potentially reshape their current emissions patterns to match those of the United States.
In turn, this will likely result in a rise in mid-year emissions alongside continued growth in winter month emissions tied to power generation for heating.
In the United States, expected growth in renewable energy generation capacity should help to fulfil much of the energy demand growth expected over the coming years from continued rises in air conditioner use and the electrification of car fleets and industry.
But with U.S. air conditioner stock alone expected to grow by nearly 9% by the end of this decade, power producers are expected to continue to heavily rely on natural gas for baseload power needs, especially at night when solar power generation stops.
This suggests that U.S. gas-fired power emissions may continue to climb in the years ahead, even as clean energy capacity growth continues to accelerate.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Reporting By Gavin Maguire; Editing by Sonali Paul
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