EIA Sees U.S. Oil Output Rising 5% in 2023, Cuts Price Forecasts

The Energy Information Administration on Tuesday forecast U.S. crude production will rise about 5% in 2023, while fuel demand will increase 1%, and cut its estimates for Brent and U.S. crude prices.

Crude production will rise 5.1% to 12.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and 1.3% to 12.69 million bpd in 2024, the EIA said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

Total petroleum consumption is due to rise nearly 1% to 20.5 million bpd in 2023, and 1.4% to 20.8 million bpd in 2024, the EIA said.

Growth in energy demand will help bring the global oil market into balance between the third quarter 2023 and the first quarter 2024, the EIA said.

The EIA lowered forecasts for international benchmark Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) spot prices in the latest report.

The administration expects Brent spot prices to average $78.65 per barrel in 2023, versus $85.01 per barrel previously, the EIA said.

It expects WTI crude spot prices to average $73.62 per barrel in 2023, versus $79.24 per barrel previously.

Retail gasoline prices during the peak summer driving season this year will average about $3.40 per gallon, a 20% decrease from the summer 2022, the EIA said.