U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023, while demand will fall, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 100.27 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.68 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.09 bcfd in 2022.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 87.04 bcfd in 2023 and 86.10 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.63 bcfd in 2022.
If correct, 2024 would be the first time since 2015 that output rises for four years in a row. It would be the first time demand declines for two years in a row since 2006.
EIA’s latest projections for 2023 were lower than its January forecast of 100.34 bcfd for supply but higher than its January forecast of 86.74 bcfd for demand.
But EIA’s latest projections for 2023 were higher than its February 2022 forecasts of 97.97 bcfd for supply and 83.85 bcfd for demand.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 11.78 bcfd in 2023 and 12.59 bcfd in 2024, up from a record 10.63 bcfd in 2022.
That 2023 forecast was lower than the 12.06 bcfd EIA forecast in January due to the delayed restart of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas.
EIA projected U.S. coal production would fall from 592.2 million short tons in 2022 to 518.0 million short tons in 2023, the lowest since 1964, and 498.9 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1963, as renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants.
As gas demand eases and power producers burn less coal, EIA projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would fall from 4.971 billion tonnes in 2022 to 4.776 billion tonnes in 2023 before rising to 4.794 billion tonnes in 2024 as the country burns more oil.