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Oil Pares Gain in Rangebound Trading Ahead of Fed Decision


These translations are done via Google Translate

Nov 2, 2022

(Bloomberg)

Oil traded near $88 a barrel ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate decision and after an industry report pointed to another big decline in US crude inventories.

West Texas Intermediate futures pared an earlier gain to trade little changed with prices stuck in a $12 band over the last month. The American Petroleum Institute reported crude stockpiles shrunk by 6.53 million barrels last week, according to people familiar with the data.

The market will be keenly watching an interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve later Wednesday to gauge the outlook for demand. The central bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. As traders look for clues about the pace of economic growth, container shipping giant Maersk said Europe was close to a recession.
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Crude has been trading near the top of its recent range

While crude has rebounded this quarter after a decision by the OPEC+ alliance to slash production from November, in recent weeks the market has struggled for direction and trading volumes have been lackluster. The producer group’s cuts will be followed by European Union sanctions on Russian oil, further clouding the supply outlook.

“Crude trades near the top of its range, but the lack of visibility regarding the short-term direction continues to keep the market mostly rangebound,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. “The demand side is torn between the prospect of a pickup in Chinese demand once Covid restrictions are lifted and worries global economic activity will continue to weaken in the coming months.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries held output steady last month after earlier agreeing to make a token reduction of 100,000 barrels a day. But with many members already lagging their quotas, few needed to do any actual cutting, and total output was well below the group’s target.

Prices:

  • WTI for December delivery fell 0.3% to $88.11 a barrel at 10:11 a.m. in London.
    • Futures gained as much as 1.6% earlier.
  • Brent for January settlement was 0.3% lower at $94.33 a barrel.
Oil options markets have turned steadily more bullish in recent weeks. Premiums of bullish call options over bearish puts have climbed to the highest level since June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


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