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Even though the forecasts called temperatures to decline with the approach of winter, those forecasts also predicted the weather would remain milder than normal through at least early November, keeping heating demand lower than usual for this time of year.
For the week, however, the front-month was still off about 2%, which would put it down for a third week in a row for the first time since March. In early October, U.S. gas prices soared to their highest since 2008 on expectations global competition for LNG would keep demand for U.S. exports strong. But after weeks of mild weather, U.S. prices were down about 18% from that high amid a growing belief in the market that the United States will have more than enough gas in storage for the winter heating season.
Analysts expect U.S. gas inventories will reach 3.6 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls short of the 3.7 tcf five-year average.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 91.1 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in October, the same as in September, and was expected to rise in coming weeks as some liquefaction trains exit maintenance outages.
With gas prices near $30 per mmBtu in Europe and $33 in Asia, versus just $5 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could produce.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Oct 22 Oct 15 Oct 22 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Oct 22
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 79 92 32 62
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,540 3,461 3,951 3,674
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -3.6% -4.2%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average 2020 (2016-2020)
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 30.39 29.89 4.89 3.24 5.19
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 33.46 35.56 5.97 4.22 6.49
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 150 150 186 128 188
U.S. GFS CDDs 36 34 39 44 26
U.S. GFS TDDs 186 184 225 172 214
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 92.2 92.0 92.1 90.0 83.1
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.3 7.4 7.2 6.6 7.5
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 99.5 99.4 99.4 96.6 90.7
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.0
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 6.0 5.8 6.2 5.0
U.S. LNG Exports 10.6 10.7 10.5 8.1 3.7
U.S. Commercial 5.3 6.4 7.2 7.1 6.8
U.S. Residential 5.0 7.2 8.9 8.1 7.2
U.S. Power Plant 28.8 26.2 25.5 29.1 27.7
U.S. Industrial 20.8 21.3 21.4 22.6 21.6
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 66.4 67.6 69.5 73.3 69.6
Total U.S. Demand 85.2 86.2 87.7 89.9 80.3
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 4.94 4.87
Transco Z6 New York 4.60 4.25
PG&E Citygate 6.77 6.77
Dominion South 4.45 4.02
Chicago Citygate 4.92 4.85
Algonquin Citygate 4.59 4.39
SoCal Citygate 6.00 6.26
Waha Hub 4.77 4.77
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 58.75 60.00
PJM West 54.00 42.75
Ercot North 53.00 235.00
Mid CÂ 61.83 67.75
Palo Verde 54.75 63.25
SP-15Â 54.00 62.25
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