Coal to Exit From U.S. Power System by 2033, Morgan Stanley Says

By Will Wade
Feb 1, 2021

(Bloomberg) Coal is on track to disappear from the U.S. power grid by 2033 as the push for a carbon-free electricity system gains strength, according to Morgan Stanley.The fossil fuel will be supplanted largely by renewables, which will supply 39% of U.S. electricity in 2030 and 55% in 2035, according to a report Monday from Morgan Stanley. The shift comes as a growing number of states implement laws mandating utilities eliminate carbon emissions from their fleets.

Coal supplied about 20% of U.S. electricity last year and may rebound to as much as 22% in 2021 as higher natural gas prices prompt utilities to shift their fuel mix, according to Energy Department forecasts. But that short-term rebound won’t overcome the global shift toward cleaner sources of electricity, a trend that’s getting a big push from President Joe Biden’s pledge to put the U.S. on a path to an all-green power system.

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Gas prices may climb 48% this year, which “drives coal generation and the sector’s carbon footprint to increase in 2021 but we continue to project a constant decline thereafter,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in the report.

(Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, has committed $500 million to launch Beyond Carbon, a campaign aimed at closing the remaining coal-powered plants in the U.S. by 2030.)